I have been using the Omoplata for more than 2 decades and it has always served me well. Sometimes I would finish the submission itself, but even if that didn’t work the attempt usually led to other submissions, sweeps, and reversals.
In the last few years my percentage for finishing the Omoplata submission itself has shot up. Why? It’s because I started placing a much larger emphasis on breaking my opponent’s alignment before trying to apply the armlock itself.
In the first video you’ll see how I used to do it. I would go to the finish even if my opponent’s knees were still under him (giving him base) and if his spine was still in good biomechanical position (posture). Sometimes it worked but most of the time my opponent would roll out which would result in a scramble. Usually I would get to the top in that scramble which was great, but I could’ve been doing it better.
Now as soon as I sit up my main focus instantly becomes breaking down his base and his posture. If he’s sprawled out with his spine twisted then his ability to wriggle or roll out is much curtailed and it’s much, much easier to finish him.
There are a number of different ways to accomplish this alignment break. I currently use 3 or 4 main methods vs the turtle, but there are also Omoplata entries that take you directly to this position of broken alignment.
TLDR: Break his alignment, finish way more submissions.
More about the Omoplata 2.0 instructional here: https://www.grapplearts.com/omoplata